Sunday, January 18, 2009
Friday, January 16, 2009
Monday, January 12, 2009
الحمار
قصه من الواقع المرير تنطبق على الوضع الحالي بحذافيره
بس الناس مش راضيه تفهم
دخل حمار مزرعة رجل وبدأ يأكل من زرعه الذي تعب في حرثه وبذر وسقيه؟ كيف يُـخرج الحمار؟؟ سؤال محير ؟؟؟ أسرع الرجل إلى البيت جاء بعدَّةِ الشغل القضية لا تحتمل التأخي أحضر عصا طويلة ومطرقة ومساميروقطعة كبيرة من الكرتون المقوى كتب على الكرتون يا حمار أخرج من مزرعتي ثبت الكرتون بالعصا الطويلة بالمطرقة والمسمار ذهب إلى حيث الحمار يرعى في المزرعة رفع اللوحة عالياً وقف رافعًا اللوحة منذ الصباح الباكرحتى غروب الشمس ولكن الحمار لم يخرج حار الرجل 'ربما لم يفهم الحمار ما كتبتُ على اللوحة' رجع إلى البيت ونام في الصباح التالي صنع عددًا كبيرًا من اللوحات ونادي أولاده وجيرانه واستنفر أهل القرية 'يعنى عمل مؤتمر قمة' صف الناس في طوابير يحملون لوحات كثيرة أخرج يا حمار من المزرعة الموت للحمير يا ويلك يا حمار من راعي الداروتحلقوا حول الحقل الذي فيه الحمار وبدءوا يهتفون اخرج يا حمار. اخرج أحسن لك والحمار حمار يأكل ولا يهتم بما يحدث حوله غربت شمس اليوم الثاني وقد تعب الناس من الصراخ والهتاف وبحت أصواتهم فلما رأوا الحمار غير مبالٍ بهم رجعوا إلى بيوتهم يفكرون في طريقة أخرىفي صباح اليوم الثالث جلس الرجل في بيته يصنع شيئاً آخرخطة جديدة لإخراج الحمار فالزرع أوشك على النهاية خرج الرجل باختراعه الجديد نموذج مجسم لحماريشبه إلى حد بعيد الحمار الأصلي ولما جاء إلى حيث الحمار يأكل في المزرعة وأمام نظر الحمار وحشود القرية المنادية بخروج الحمار سكب البنزين على النموذج وأحرقه فكبّر الحشد نظر الحمار إلى حيث النار ثم رجع يأكل في المزرعة بلا مبالاة يا له من حمار عنيد لا يفهم أرسلوا وفدًا ليتفاوض مع الحمار قالوا له: صاحب المزرعة يريدك أن تخرج وهو صاحب الحق وعليك أن تخرج الحمار ينظر إليهم ثم يعود للأكل لا يكترث بهم بعد عدة محاولات أرسل الرجل وسيطاً آخر قال للحمار صاحب المزرعة مستعد للتنازل لك عن بعض من مساحته الحمار يأكل ولا يرد ثلثه الحمار لا يرد نصفه الحمار لا يرد طيب حدد المساحة التي تريدها ولكن لا تتجاوزه رفع الحمار رأسه وقد شبع من الأكل ومشى قليلاً إلى طرف الحقل وهو ينظر إلى الجمع ويفكر فرح الناس لقد وافق الحمار أخيراً أحضر صاحب المزرعة الأخشاب وسيَّج المزرعة وقسمها نصفين وترك للحمار النصف الذي هو واقف فيه في صباح اليوم التالي كانت المفاجأة لصاحب المزرعة لقد ترك الحمار نصيبه ودخل في نصيب صاحب المزرعة وأخذ يأكل رجع أخونا مرة أخرى إلى اللوحات والمظاهرات يبدو أنه لا فائدة هذا الحمار لا يفهم إنه ليس من حمير المنطقة لقد جاء من قرية أخرى بدأ الرجل يفكر في ترك المزرعة بكاملها للحمار والذهاب إلى قرية أخرى لتأسيس مزرعة أخرى وأمام دهشة جميع الحاضرين وفي مشهد من الحشد العظيم حيث لم يبقَ أحد من القرية إلا وقد حضر ليشارك في المحاولات اليائسة لإخراج الحمار المحتل العنيد المتكبر المتسلط المؤذي جاء غلام صغير خرج من بين الصفوف دخل إلى الحقل تقدم إلى الحمار وضرب الحمار بعصا صغيرة على قفاه فإذا به يركض خارج الحقل .. 'يا الله' صاح الجميع .... لقد فضحَنا هذا الصغير وسيجعل منا أضحوكة القرى التي حولنا
فما كان منهم إلا أن قـَـتلوا الغلام وأعادوا الحمار إلى المزرعة
ثم أذاعوا أن الطفل شهيد !!
Thursday, January 08, 2009
For Gaza
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Thursday, December 11, 2008
WHATTAAAA??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Sunday, November 30, 2008
"The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought " Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the challenge or failure of predictions and Black Swans. Recorded before the current global economic turmoil
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Black swan theory
- For Taleb's book on the subject, see The Black Swan.
The Black Swan theory (in Nassim Nicholas Taleb 's version) refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations. Unlike the philosophical "black swan problem", the "Black Swan" theory (capitalized) refers only to events of large consequence and their dominant role in history.
Background
The theory was described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Taleb regards many scientific discoveries as black swans—"undirected" and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, as well as the September 11, 2001 attacks as examples of Black Swan events.[1]
The term black swan comes from the commonplace Western cultural assumption that 'All swans are white'. In that context, a black swan was a metaphor for something that could not exist. The 17th Century discovery of black swans in Australia metamorphosed the term to connote that the perceived impossibility actually came to pass. Taleb notes that John Stuart Mill first used the black swan narrative to discuss falsification.
Non-philosophical epistemological approach
Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier (philosophical) versions of the problem as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical/statistical properties which he calls "the fourth quadrant".[2] Before Taleb, those who dealt with the notion of improbable, like Hume, Mill and Popper, focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations. Taleb's Black Swan has a central and unique attribute: the high impact. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected—while humans convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight (bias).
One problem, labeled the Ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected can be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are assumed to represent samples from a bell curve. These concerns are often highly relevant to financial markets, where major players use value at risk models (which imply normal distributions) but market movements have fat tails.
Taleb notes that other functions are often more descriptive, such as the fractal, power law, or scalable distributions; awareness of these might help to temper expectations.[3] Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events are simply without precedent, undercutting the basis of this sort of reasoning altogether. Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk.[4][5]
Friday, November 28, 2008
Another Terror act
Thursday, November 27, 2008
http://alzebda.com
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
"OBAMA 08" I'm Proud to be an American !
Martin Luther King, Jr.
"I Have a Dream"
delivered 28 August 1963, at the Lincoln Memorial, Washington D.C.
[AUTHENTICITY CERTIFIED: Text version below transcribed directly from audio. (2)] I am happy to join with you today in what will go down in history as the greatest demonstration for freedom in the history of our nation. Five score years ago, a great American, in whose symbolic shadow we stand today, signed the Emancipation Proclamation. This momentous decree came as a great beacon light of hope to millions of Negro slaves who had been seared in the flames of withering injustice. It came as a joyous daybreak to end the long night of their captivity. But one hundred years later, the Negro still is not free. One hundred years later, the life of the Negro is still sadly crippled by the manacles of segregation and the chains of discrimination. One hundred years later, the Negro lives on a lonely island of poverty in the midst of a vast ocean of material prosperity. One hundred years later, the Negro is still languished in the corners of American society and finds himself an exile in his own land. And so we've come here today to dramatize a shameful condition. In a sense we've come to our nation's capital to cash a check. When the architects of our republic wrote the magnificent words of the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence, they were signing a promissory note to which every American was to fall heir. This note was a promise that all men, yes, black men as well as white men, would be guaranteed the "unalienable Rights" of "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." It is obvious today that America has defaulted on this promissory note, insofar as her citizens of color are concerned. Instead of honoring this sacred obligation, America has given the Negro people a bad check, a check which has come back marked "insufficient funds." But we refuse to believe that the bank of justice is bankrupt. We refuse to believe that there are insufficient funds in the great vaults of opportunity of this nation. And so, we've come to cash this check, a check that will give us upon demand the riches of freedom and the security of justice. We have also come to this hallowed spot to remind America of the fierce urgency of Now. This is no time to engage in the luxury of cooling off or to take the tranquilizing drug of gradualism. Now is the time to make real the promises of democracy. Now is the time to rise from the dark and desolate valley of segregation to the sunlit path of racial justice. Now is the time to lift our nation from the quicksands of racial injustice to the solid rock of brotherhood. Now is the time to make justice a reality for all of God's children. It would be fatal for the nation to overlook the urgency of the moment. This sweltering summer of the Negro's legitimate discontent will not pass until there is an invigorating autumn of freedom and equality. Nineteen sixty-three is not an end, but a beginning. And those who hope that the Negro needed to blow off steam and will now be content will have a rude awakening if the nation returns to business as usual. And there will be neither rest nor tranquility in America until the Negro is granted his citizenship rights. The whirlwinds of revolt will continue to shake the foundations of our nation until the bright day of justice emerges. But there is something that I must say to my people, who stand on the warm threshold which leads into the palace of justice: In the process of gaining our rightful place, we must not be guilty of wrongful deeds. Let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred. We must forever conduct our struggle on the high plane of dignity and discipline. We must not allow our creative protest to degenerate into physical violence. Again and again, we must rise to the majestic heights of meeting physical force with soul force. The marvelous new militancy which has engulfed the Negro community must not lead us to a distrust of all white people, for many of our white brothers, as evidenced by their presence here today, have come to realize that their destiny is tied up with our destiny. And they have come to realize that their freedom is inextricably bound to our freedom. We cannot walk alone. And as we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back. There are those who are asking the devotees of civil rights, "When will you be satisfied?" We can never be satisfied as long as the Negro is the victim of the unspeakable horrors of police brutality. We can never be satisfied as long as our bodies, heavy with the fatigue of travel, cannot gain lodging in the motels of the highways and the hotels of the cities. We cannot be satisfied as long as the negro's basic mobility is from a smaller ghetto to a larger one. We can never be satisfied as long as our children are stripped of their self-hood and robbed of their dignity by a sign stating: "For Whites Only." We cannot be satisfied as long as a Negro in Mississippi cannot vote and a Negro in New York believes he has nothing for which to vote. No, no, we are not satisfied, and we will not be satisfied until "justice rolls down like waters, and righteousness like a mighty stream."¹ I am not unmindful that some of you have come here out of great trials and tribulations. Some of you have come fresh from narrow jail cells. And some of you have come from areas where your quest -- quest for freedom left you battered by the storms of persecution and staggered by the winds of police brutality. You have been the veterans of creative suffering. Continue to work with the faith that unearned suffering is redemptive. Go back to Mississippi, go back to Alabama, go back to South Carolina, go back to Georgia, go back to Louisiana, go back to the slums and ghettos of our northern cities, knowing that somehow this situation can and will be changed. Let us not wallow in the valley of despair, I say to you today, my friends. And so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream. I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal." I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia, the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood. I have a dream that one day even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice. I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character. I have a dream today! I have a dream that one day, down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of "interposition" and "nullification" -- one day right there in Alabama little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers. I have a dream today! I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, and every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight; "and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed and all flesh shall see it together."² This is our hope, and this is the faith that I go back to the South with. With this faith, we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. With this faith, we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith, we will be able to work together, to pray together, to struggle together, to go to jail together, to stand up for freedom together, knowing that we will be free one day. And this will be the day -- this will be the day when all of God's children will be able to sing with new meaning:
And if America is to be a great nation, this must become true. And so let freedom ring from the prodigious hilltops of New Hampshire.
But not only that:
And when this happens, when we allow freedom ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God's children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual: Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!³ |
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Thursday, October 09, 2008
In light of the current financial crises "CASH IS KING"
Friday, October 03, 2008
I was an ugly baby!
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Michael Moore message
Friends,
Everyone said the bill would pass. The masters of the universe were already making celebratory dinner reservations at Manhattan's finest restaurants. Personal shoppers in Dallas and Atlanta were dispatched to do the early Christmas gifting. Mad Men of Chicago and Miami were popping corks and toasting each other long before the morning latte run.
But what they didn't know was that hundreds of thousands of Americans woke up yesterday morning and decided it was time for revolt. The politicians never saw it coming. Millions of phone calls and emails hit Congress so hard it was as if Marshall Dillon, Elliot Ness and Dog the Bounty Hunter had descended on D.C. to stop the looting and arrest the thieves.
The Corporate Crime of the Century was halted by a vote of 228 to 205. It was rare and historic; no one could remember a time when a bill supported by the president and the leadership of both parties went down in defeat. That just never happens.
A lot of people are wondering why the right wing of the Republican Party joined with the left wing of the Democratic Party in voting down the thievery. Forty percent of Democrats and two-thirds of Republicans voted against the bill.
Here's what happened:
The presidential race may still be close in the polls, but the Congressional races are pointing toward a landslide for the Democrats. Few dispute the prediction that the Republicans are in for a whoopin' on November 4th. Up to 30 Republican House seats could be lost in what would be a stunning repudiation of their agenda.
The Republican reps are so scared of losing their seats, when this "financial crisis" reared its head two weeks ago, they realized they had just been handed their one and only chance to separate themselves from Bush before the election, while doing something that would make them look like they were on the side of "the people."
Watching C-Span yesterday morning was one of the best comedy shows I'd seen in ages. There they were, one Republican after another who had backed the war and sunk the country into record debt, who had voted to kill every regulation that would have kept Wall Street in check -- there they were, now crying foul and standing up for the little guy! One after another, they stood at the microphone on the House floor and threw Bush under the bus, under the train (even though they had voted to kill off our nation's trains, too), heck, they would've thrown him under the rising waters of the Lower Ninth Ward if they could've conjured up another hurricane. You know how your dog acts when sprayed by a skunk? He howls and runs around trying to shake it off, rubbing and rolling himself on every piece of your carpet, trying to get rid of the stench. That's what it looked like on the Republican side of the aisle yesterday, and it was a sight to behold.
The 95 brave Dems who broke with Barney Frank and Chris Dodd were the real heroes, just like those few who stood up and voted against the war in October of 2002. Watch the remarks from yesterday of Reps. Marcy Kaptur, Sheila Jackson Lee, and Dennis Kucinich. They spoke the truth.
The Dems who voted for the giveaway did so mostly because they were scared by the threats of Wall Street, that if the rich didn't get their handout, the market would go nuts and then it's bye-bye stock-based pension and retirement funds.
And guess what? That's exactly what Wall Street did! The largest, single-day drop in the Dow in the history of the New York Stock exchange. The news anchors last night screamed it out: Americans just lost 1.2 trillion dollars in the stock market!! It's a financial Pearl Harbor! The sky is falling! Bird flu! Killer Bees!
Of course, sane people know that nobody "lost" anything yesterday, that stocks go up and down and this too shall pass because the rich will now buy low, hold, then sell off, then buy low again.
But for now, Wall Street and its propaganda arm (the networks and media it owns) will continue to try and scare the bejesus out of you. It will be harder to get a loan. Some people will lose their jobs. A weak nation of wimps won't last long under this torture. Or will we? Is this our line in the sand?
Here's my guess: The Democratic leadership in the House secretly hoped all along that this lousy bill would go down. With Bush's proposals shredded, the Dems knew they could then write their own bill that favors the average American, not the upper 10% who were hoping for another kegger of gold.
So the ball is in the Democrats' hands. The gun from Wall Street remains at their head. Before they make their next move, let me tell you what the media kept silent about while this bill was being debated:
1. The bailout bill had NO enforcement provisions for the so-called oversight group that was going to monitor Wall Street's spending of the $700 billion;
2. It had NO penalties, fines or imprisonment for any executive who might steal any of the people's money;
3. It did NOTHING to force banks and lenders to rewrite people's mortgages to avoid foreclosures -- this bill would not have stopped ONE foreclosure!;
4. It had NO teeth anywhere in the entire piece of legislation, using words like "suggested" when referring to the government being paid back for the bailout;
5. Over 200 economists wrote to Congress and said this bill might actually WORSEN the "financial crisis" and cause even MORE of a meltdown.
Put a fork in this slab of pork. It's over. Now it is time for our side to state very clearly the laws WE want passed. I will send you my proposals later today. We've bought ourselves less than 72 hours.
Yours, Michael Moore MMFlint@aol.com MichaelMoore.com
